In Progress
My main line of research right now is my 2025–2030 ERC starting grant, with a first publication out in American Journal of Sociology and more underway.
Other projects I’m working on include:
Rethinking the Analysis of Social Change (with Ben Elbers and Jonathan Mellon)
Abstract
Sociologists have long recognized population turnover, meaning who enters and exits a population, as a fundamental mechanism of social change, invoked to explain phenomena ranging from secularization and gender equality to political realignments and scientific innovation. Yet researchers often study these dynamics using age-period-cohort (APC) tools, assuming that APC models can reveal how much change reflects cohort replacement versus shifts within individuals. We argue that this strategy is mistaken. APC dimensions cannot be independently interpreted, and APC coefficients do not map onto the processes that actually generate historical change. Moreover, APC models ignore the population structure that determines the aggregate impact of micro-level transitions. We propose a conceptually grounded alternative: a decomposition that directly estimates the contributions of population turnover and intraindividual change. This approach aligns with the substantive questions scholars ask, namely how societies change because people change, and how they change because people are replaced.Elites and the Geography of Persistence (with Martin Hällsten and Martin Kolk)
Abstract
Are geographic differences in intergenerational persistence genuine or artefacts of poor measurement and short-term fluctuations? We examine this question using a new multigenerational dataset based on historical censuses and modern population data, tracing the entire Swedish population from 1880 until today. We estimate intergenerational and extended-kin correlations across Swedish counties for up to four generations. We find substantial geographic variation in multigenerational persistence that is remarkably stable across kinship distances over more than a century. These differences are consistent with durable regional social hierarchies, measured by historical elite concentration, class structure, and land inequality. Persistence is also substantially higher among descendants of the historical elite. Decompositions show that geographic variation reflects both differences in how locally prevalent social classes were, and how persistent their (dis)advantages. Together, these findings indicate that geographic differences in persistence are real, deeply rooted, and central to understanding long-run spatial inequality.Lasting Effects of Temporary School Closures (with Erik Liss)
Abstract
During the recent pandemic, unanticipated school closures have led to short-run deficits in student learning around the world. Less is known about the long-run consequences of such learning deficits. We shed light on this question using a 1989 teacher strike that forced schools in 44 Swedish municipalities to close over a period of 4–5 weeks. We implement a difference-in-differences design, comparing treated and untreated municipalities using various matching and weighting estimators. In the short run, students experienced a reduction in Grade Point Averages (GPA) of about 2 percentile points (0.05 SD). This effect is driven by boys from disadvantaged homes, and persists up to 5 years after the strike. In the long run, exposed students experienced a 1.8% reduction in earnings, and this effect is larger in disadvantaged groups. Our results suggest that school closures can have lasting effects on human capital and intergenerational mobility, unless action is take to mitigate their harm.Teaching Teachers (with Danilo Kuzmanic and John Jerrim)